Publication: Tracking the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying SIR model
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Date
2020-12-10
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer Nature
Abstract
The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model ofers the simplest framework to study transmission
dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during
a lockdown. We modifed the SIR model to specifcally simulate the early depleting transmission
dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was
ftted to observed total (I total), active (I) and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to
estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modifed with a partial time-varying
force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefcient, βt and a fractional
term, z. The modifed SIR model was then ftted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown.
Model ftting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The
transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modifed SIR
model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily and
R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4.7% each day with a decreased
capacity of 40%. For 7-day and 14-day projections, the modifed SIR model accurately predicted I
total, I and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately
captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future
planning and control of COVID-19.
Description
Keywords
Covid-19, Transmission, SIR, Depleting