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Tracking the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying SIR model

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dc.contributor.authorKian Boon Law
dc.contributor.authorKalaiarasu M. Peariasamy
dc.contributor.authorBalvinder Singh Gill
dc.contributor.authorSarbhan Singh
dc.contributor.authorBala Murali Sundram
dc.contributor.authorKamesh Rajendran
dc.contributor.authorSarat Chandra Dass
dc.contributor.authorYi Lin Lee
dc.contributor.authorPik Pin Goh
dc.contributor.authorHishamshah Ibrahim
dc.contributor.authorNoor Hisham Abdullah
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-17T08:29:37Z
dc.date.available2024-07-17T08:29:37Z
dc.date.issued2020-12-10
dc.description.abstractThe susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model ofers the simplest framework to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during a lockdown. We modifed the SIR model to specifcally simulate the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was ftted to observed total (I total), active (I) and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modifed with a partial time-varying force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefcient, βt and a fractional term, z. The modifed SIR model was then ftted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown. Model ftting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modifed SIR model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily and R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4.7% each day with a decreased capacity of 40%. For 7-day and 14-day projections, the modifed SIR model accurately predicted I total, I and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future planning and control of COVID-19.
dc.identifier.doidoi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-78739-8
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-78739-8
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.nih.gov.my/handle/123456789/575
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer Nature
dc.relation.ispartofScientific Reports
dc.relation.issn2045-2322
dc.relation.journalScientific Reports
dc.subjectCovid-19
dc.subjectTransmission
dc.subjectSIR
dc.subjectDepleting
dc.titleTracking the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying SIR model
dc.typejournal-article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue1
oaire.citation.volume10
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