Introduction: The novel coronavirus infection has become a global threat affecting almost every country in the world. As a result, it has become important to understand the disease trends in order to mitigate its effects. The aim of this study is firstly to develop a prediction model for daily confirmed COVID-19 cases based on several covariates, and secondly, to select the best prediction model based on a subset of these covariates. Methodology: This study was conducted using daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 collected from the official Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH) and John Hopkins University websites. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the training data of observed cases from 22 January to 31 March 2020, and subsequently validated using data on cases from 1 April to 17 April 2020. The ARIMA model satisfactorily forecasted the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from 18 April 2020 to 1 May 2020 (the testing phase). Results: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model produced the best fit to the observed data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 16.01 and a Bayes Information Criteria (BIC) value of 4.170. The forecasted values showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases until 1 May 2020. Observed cases during the forecast period were accurately predicted and were placed within the prediction intervals generated by the fitted model. Conclusions: This study finds that ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for monitoring and predicting trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia.

Introduction: There are few sources of published data on intra-cluster correlation coefficients (ICCs) amongst patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and/or hypertension in primary care, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. ICC values are necessary for determining the sample sizes of cluster randomized trials. Hence, we aim to report the ICC values for a range of measures from a cluster-based interventional study conducted in Malaysia. Method: Baseline data from a large study entitled Evaluation of Enhanced Primary Health Care interventions in public health clinics (EnPHC-EVA: Facility) were used in this analysis. Data from 40 public primary care clinics were collected through retrospective chart reviews and a patient exit survey. We calculated the ICCs for processes of care, clinical outcomes and patient experiences in patients with T2D and/or hypertension using the analysis of variance approach. Results: Patient experience had the highest ICC values compared to processes of care and clinical outcomes. The ICC values ranged from 0.01 to 0.48 for processes of care. Generally, the ICC values for processes of care for patients with hypertension only are higher than those for T2D patients, with or without hypertension. However, both groups of patients have similar ICCs for antihypertensive medications use. In addition, similar ICC values were observed for clinical outcomes, ranging from 0.01 to 0.09. For patient experience, the ICCs were between 0.03 (proportion of patients who are willing to recommend the clinic to their friends and family) and 0.25 (for Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care item 9, Given a copy of my treatment plan). Conclusion: The reported ICCs and their respective 95% confidence intervals for T2D and hypertension will be useful for estimating sample sizes and improving efficiency of cluster trials conducted in the primary care setting, particularly for low- and middle-income countries.

Introduction: As of 3rd June 2021, Malaysia is experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In response, the federal government has implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under a series of Movement Control Orders and, more recently, a vaccination campaign to regain epidemic control. In this study, we assessed the potential for the vaccination campaign to control the epidemic in Malaysia and four high-burden regions of interest, under various public health response scenarios. Methods: A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental model was developed that included two sequential incubation and infectious periods, with stratification by clinical state. The model was further stratified by age and incorporated population mobility to capture NPIs and micro-distancing (behaviour changes not captured through population mobility). Emerging variants of concern (VoC) were included as an additional strain competing with the existing wild-type strain. Several scenarios that included different vaccination strategies (i.e. vaccines that reduce disease severity and/or prevent infection, vaccination coverage) and mobility restrictions were implemented. Results: The national model and the regional models all fit well to notification data but underestimated ICU occupancy and deaths in recent weeks, which may be attributable to increased severity of VoC or saturation of case detection. However, the true case detection proportion showed wide credible intervals, highlighting incomplete understanding of the true epidemic size. The scenario projections suggested that under current vaccination rates complete relaxation of all NPIs would trigger a major epidemic. The results emphasise the importance of micro-distancing, maintaining mobility restrictions during vaccination roll-out and accelerating the pace of vaccination for future control. Malaysia is particularly susceptible to a major COVID-19 resurgence resulting from its limited population immunity due to the country’s historical success in maintaining control throughout much of 2020.

The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model ofers the simplest framework to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during a lockdown. We modifed the SIR model to specifcally simulate the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was ftted to observed total (I total), active (I) and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modifed with a partial time-varying force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefcient, βt and a fractional term, z. The modifed SIR model was then ftted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown. Model ftting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modifed SIR model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily and R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4.7% each day with a decreased capacity of 40%. For 7-day and 14-day projections, the modifed SIR model accurately predicted I total, I and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future planning and control of COVID-19.