Publication: Adult palliative care 2004–2030 population study: estimates and projections in Malaysia
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Date
2020
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
BMJ
Abstract
Objectives: To estimate past trends and future projection of adult palliative care needs in
Malaysia.
Methods: This is a population-based secondary data analysis using the national mortality registry
from 2004 to 2014. Past trend estimation was conducted using Murtagh’s minimum
and maximum methods and Gómez-Batiste’s method. The estimated palliative care needs
were stratified by age groups, gender and administrative states in Malaysia. With this, the
projection of palliative care needs up to 2030 was conducted under the assumption that
annual change remains constant.
Results: The palliative care needs in Malaysia followed an apparent upward trend over the
years regardless of the estimation methods. Murtagh’s minimum estimation method showed
that palliative care needs grew 40% from 71 675 cases in 2004 to 100 034 cases in 2014. The
proportion of palliative care needs in relation to deaths hovered at 71% in the observed years. In
2030, Malaysia should anticipate the population needs to be at least 239 713 cases (240%
growth from 2014), with the highest needs among age group ≥80-year-old in both genders.
Sarawak, Perak, Johor, Selangor and Kedah will become the top five Malaysian states with the
highest number of needs in 2030.
Conclusion: The need for palliative care in Malaysia will continue to rise and surpass its
service provision. This trend demands a stepped up provision from the national health system
with advanced integration of palliative care services to narrow the gap between needs and
supply