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Sustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination

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dc.contributor.authorPavithra Jayasundara
dc.contributor.authorKalaiarasu M. Peariasamy
dc.contributor.authorKian Boon Law
dc.contributor.authorKu Nurhasni Ku Abd Rahim
dc.contributor.authorSit Wai Lee
dc.contributor.authorIzzuna Mudla M. Ghazali
dc.contributor.authorMilinda Abayawardana
dc.contributor.authorLinh-Vi Le
dc.contributor.authorRukun K.S. Khalaf
dc.contributor.authorKarina Razali
dc.contributor.authorXuan Le
dc.contributor.authorZhuo Lin Chong
dc.contributor.authorEmma S. McBryde
dc.contributor.authorMichael T. Meehan
dc.contributor.authorJamie M. Caldwell
dc.contributor.authorRomain Ragonnet
dc.contributor.authorJames M. Trauer
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-18T03:14:27Z
dc.date.available2024-07-18T03:14:27Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractIntroduction: As of 3rd June 2021, Malaysia is experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In response, the federal government has implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under a series of Movement Control Orders and, more recently, a vaccination campaign to regain epidemic control. In this study, we assessed the potential for the vaccination campaign to control the epidemic in Malaysia and four high-burden regions of interest, under various public health response scenarios. Methods: A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental model was developed that included two sequential incubation and infectious periods, with stratification by clinical state. The model was further stratified by age and incorporated population mobility to capture NPIs and micro-distancing (behaviour changes not captured through population mobility). Emerging variants of concern (VoC) were included as an additional strain competing with the existing wild-type strain. Several scenarios that included different vaccination strategies (i.e. vaccines that reduce disease severity and/or prevent infection, vaccination coverage) and mobility restrictions were implemented. Results: The national model and the regional models all fit well to notification data but underestimated ICU occupancy and deaths in recent weeks, which may be attributable to increased severity of VoC or saturation of case detection. However, the true case detection proportion showed wide credible intervals, highlighting incomplete understanding of the true epidemic size. The scenario projections suggested that under current vaccination rates complete relaxation of all NPIs would trigger a major epidemic. The results emphasise the importance of micro-distancing, maintaining mobility restrictions during vaccination roll-out and accelerating the pace of vaccination for future control. Malaysia is particularly susceptible to a major COVID-19 resurgence resulting from its limited population immunity due to the country’s historical success in maintaining control throughout much of 2020.
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100517
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.nih.gov.my/handle/123456789/589
dc.language.isoen
dc.relation.ispartofEpidemics
dc.relation.issn1755-4365
dc.titleSustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination
dc.typejournal-article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.volume37
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