Publication:
Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorBalvinder Singh Gill
dc.contributor.authorVivek Jason Jayaraj
dc.contributor.authorSarbhan Singh
dc.contributor.authorSumarni Mohd Ghazali
dc.contributor.authorYoon Ling Cheong
dc.contributor.authorNuur Hafizah Md Iderus
dc.contributor.authorBala Murali Sundram
dc.contributor.authorTahir Bin Aris
dc.contributor.authorHishamshah Mohd Ibrahim
dc.contributor.authorBoon Hao Hong
dc.contributor.authorJane Labadin
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-10T08:12:46Z
dc.date.available2024-07-10T08:12:46Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractMalaysia is currently facing an outbreak of COVID-19. We aim to present the first study in Malaysia to report the reproduction numbers and develop a mathematical model forecasting COVID-19 transmission by including isolation, quarantine, and movement control measures. We utilized a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model by incorporating isolation, quarantine, and movement control order (MCO) taken in Malaysia. The simulations were fitted into the Malaysian COVID-19 active case numbers, allowing approximation of parameters consisting of probability of transmission per contact (β), average number of contacts per day per case (ζ), and proportion of close-contact traced per day (q). The effective reproduction number (Rt) was also determined through this model. Our model calibration estimated that (β), (ζ), and (q) were 0.052, 25 persons, and 0.23, respectively. The (Rt) was estimated to be 1.68. MCO measures reduce the peak number of active COVID-19 cases by 99.1% and reduce (ζ) from 25 (pre-MCO) to 7 (during MCO). The flattening of the epidemic curve was also observed with the implementation of these control measures. We conclude that isolation, quarantine, and MCO measures are essential to break the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia.
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/ijerph17155509
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/15/5509
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.nih.gov.my/handle/123456789/475
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
dc.relation.issn1660-4601
dc.relation.journalINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectmathematical modelling
dc.subjectsusceptible
dc.subjectexposed
dc.subjectinfectious
dc.subjectSEIR
dc.subjectisolation
dc.subjectmovement
dc.subjectRespiratory syndrome
dc.subjectOutbreak
dc.subjectQuarantine
dc.titleModelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia
dc.typetext::journal::journal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue15
oaire.citation.volume17
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
NIH20200001.pdf
Size:
1.92 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
Collections
Selected Article of Journal (ICR)